Trump, Trade & Tariffs

And Argentina's comparative advantage amidst the brewing tempest...

“The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws.”

~ Publius Cornelius Tacitus (AD 56 – AD 117)

Joel Bowman with today’s Note From the End of the World: Buenos Aires, Argentina...

We were just going live for yesterday’s Crisis & Opportunity at the End of the World event, when our tragically underpaid tech support (read: dear wifey) handed us a sheet of paper, on which was written...

“Breaking: Trump just hit pause on all tariffs... except for China...”

For a second, we thought we were back in school again, passing notes behind the teacher’s back. Then we remembered we were live... in front of over a thousand conference attendees... and that the president’s on-again, off-again, shoot-from-the-hip trade policy actually impacts real people, living in the real world, in very real ways.

As we told those in attendance, when we came up with the title for the event, we could have had no inkling about just how apt the sentiment would be... nor that dear readers might be tempted to take our End of the World pun literally, as we as metaphorically.

Our first speaker, Charles Sizemore of The Freeport Society, gave the moment some historical context...

Alas, just as no man is an island, so too no 21st Century economy exists in isolation, independent of the trade winds that blow, whether for ill or for good. So when the leader of the world’s largest economy announces sweeping trade policies, the butterfly effects ripple to the farthest shores… even down here, at the very End of the World.

Unsurprisingly, therefore, the conversation was dominated by the Big Three T-words… Trump, trade and tariffs…

But as our speakers agreed, though the immediate future of global trade may be in limbo, there is plenty to be sanguine about regarding this fertile land, rich in resources, both in and above the ground.

Below is an Executive Summary of the 2-hour discussion. We’re working on a full and edited transcript for our dear Notes Members, which we’ll send to them – along with a complete audio-video recording of the event to watch at their convenience – in the next day or so.

If you’re not already a Notes Member, but would like to support our work and sponsor more of these kinds of events, feel free to join our small but growing community of contrarian investors, critical thinkers and unabashed free market advocates right here:

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Executive Summary: Crisis & Opportunity: Navigating Trade Wars, Tariffs, and Argentina’s Ascent
Event Date: April, 2025
Host: Joel Bowman, Notes from the End of the World
Featured Speakers: Charles Sizemore (Freeport Society), Chris MacIntosh (Capitalist Exploits), George Gammon (Rebel Capitalist)

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Overview

This timely virtual summit gathered thought leaders and seasoned investors to unpack the implications of a rapidly escalating global trade war, spearheaded by the U.S. under President Trump’s renewed tariff policy—termed "Liberation Day.”

Just a week into their implementation, markets are reacting with extreme volatility. Against this global backdrop, Argentina—under the reformist leadership of President Javier Milei—is emerging as a contrarian economic bright spot. The event focused on understanding macroeconomic risks and opportunities within this shifting global landscape, particularly how Argentina may benefit from these disruptive changes.

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Context: Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Political Uncertainty

Host Joel Bowman opened by noting the astonishing pace of global economic developments: spiraling tariffs, market turbulence, and widespread policy uncertainty. Emphasizing Argentina’s unorthodox but promising trajectory, Bowman set the stage for a discussion on how the country's aggressive free-market reforms under President Milei contrast starkly with the growing centralization in the U.S. and Europe.

Bowman highlighted Argentina's remarkable progress since Milei took office in December 2023:

• Monthly inflation dropped from ~25% to 2.4%.

• Poverty decreased by 23 points since the recession high last year.

• GDP growth surged: 4.7% in Q1 2025, projected 7.1% in Q2.

• Recovery has been largely private sector-driven—avoiding public debt-fueled stimulus typical of other economies. (The so called “expenditure method” of calculating GDP, so favored by Keynesian economists.)

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Speaker Insights

Charles Sizemore, Freeport Society – Strategic Parallels to the 1970s

Sizemore drew historical parallels between today’s market setup and the stagflation era of the 1970s, citing eerie similarities: a narrow market dominated by tech, a temperamental president sparking trade shocks, and potential long-term equity stagnation.

Key Points:

• Hard assets like gold and farmland outperformed in the 1970s—a likely repeat may be underway.

• Argentina, rich in agricultural resources, is well positioned to benefit in a global hard asset boom.

• Investment risks in Latin America remain high due to political volatility—underscoring the need for strong local partnerships or indirect exposure via public markets.

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Chris MacIntosh, Capital Expliots – Capital Rotation & Relative Value

MacIntosh emphasized that we’re in the midst of a “capital rotation cycle,” where capital moves from overvalued, indebted nations to underpriced, reforming economies. Argentina’s deep undervaluation (e.g., a total market cap smaller than many U.S. corporations) combined with favorable political and monetary reforms make it a standout.

Key Points:

• Capitalist Exploits began investing in Argentina in 2021 due to macro signals and relative valuation—not political optimism.

• The return of credit (previously impossible due to hyperinflation) is unlocking enormous margin expansion in Argentina's banking sector.

• Reduced friction, improved regulatory clarity, and currency stability are driving a liquidity renaissance in Argentina.

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George Gammon, Rebel Capitalist – Tariff Reversal: Argentina’s Hidden Windfall

Gammon revealed little-known details about existing U.S. agricultural tariffs—particularly quota systems where post-quota imports from Argentina were taxed up to 131%. The recent bilateral agreement between Trump and Milei may eliminate many of these barriers.

Key Points:

• Tariff removals could produce a windfall for Argentina’s agri-exporters—turning Argentina into a major beneficiary of the U.S.’s own protectionist pivot.

• Argentina's labor and input costs are far lower than the U.S., offering a comparative advantage that is now politically enabled.

• The combination of fertile land, deregulation, and strategic neutrality (non-alignment with China or the U.S.) strengthens Argentina's long-term economic profile.

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Macro Takeaways & Investment Themes

1. Tariffs as Central Planning
   All speakers critiqued tariffs as short-sighted central planning that disrupts long-term capital allocation and business certainty. The U.S., in trying to protect domestic jobs, may be hurting its global competitiveness while gifting market share to more agile economies like Argentina.
   

2. Argentina's Reform Story Is Gaining Traction
   Unlike past reform attempts in Latin America, Argentina’s shift has been achieved peacefully and democratically, potentially signaling greater durability. Market participants are taking note as regulation eases, inflation stabilizes, and private sector growth accelerates.
   

3. Comparative Advantage Amid Global Disarray
   While the U.S. and China escalate trade hostilities, Argentina is leveraging its resource wealth, low labor costs, and pro-market stance to become a haven for agricultural exports and capital inflows.

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Conclusion

The event concluded with cautious optimism. While the global economy faces serious headwinds from the tariff war, Argentina is uniquely positioned to thrive amid chaos. Attendees were urged to watch closely as Argentina transitions from a historical economic cautionary tale to a possible blueprint for free-market revival in an era of renewed central planning elsewhere.

Future communications, including speaker bios and additional resources, will be distributed via Joel Bowman’s Notes from the End of the World.

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Final Notes…

Thanks to everyone who was able to attend our event live. Notes Members, be on the lookout for the audio-video recordings and complete transcript tomorrow. (Not a member yet, join here:

And of course, stay tuned for more Notes From the End of the World…

Cheers,

Joel Bowman