The Good, The Bad... and The Ugly

From one End of the World to the Others...

(Following A Fistful of Dollars and For a Few Dollars More, The Good, the Bad and the Ugly was the third in the so-called Dollars Trilogy. It was released in Italy in 1965 and to US audiences the following year.)

“You see in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend. Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig.”

~ Blondie (Clint Eastwood) in the movie The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (1966)

Joel Bowman with today’s Note From the End of the World: Buenos Aires, Argentina...

When we left you last week, we were noticing a diverging trend between the north and south, from one End of the Americas to the Other.

Down here in our adopted sometimes home of Argentina, markets are opening up and trade barriers are coming down... growth is revised higher and inflation is returning to earth... as the people cast their weary eyes upon the future and discover, to their own astonishment, the hope of brighter days to come.

North of the Rio Grande, meanwhile, trade barriers are going up as tariffs take center stage... growth is revised lower and inflation expectations creep higher... and hardworking everyday citizens, having enjoyed their “exceptional” position at the top of the heap for as long as they can recall, turn their tired eyes toward the future and discover, to their own chagrin, debt, deficits and doubletalk deceit as far as the eye can see.

Of course, all is not quite as it seems. And our American friends need not despair entirely, for there is a third trend in motion... one lately accelerating on the other side of the Atlantic... which makes the republic’s prospects appear outright rosy.

Over the next few Notes, we’ll take a look at these diverging trajectories, roughly trifurcated into The Good, the Bad and The Ugly. And so, like a pimply teen at a high school dance, we shall begin with the former... and work our way to the latter.

Argentina, The Good

In what some are daring to call the “Milei Effect,” the OECD has revised higher its economic outlook for Argentina and estimates growth of 5.7% for this year, making it the world's second fastest-growing economy in 2025, after India. Projected growth for 2026, according to the crystal ballers, have Argentina in 3rd place, behind India and Indonesia, respectively.

All the while, inflation is expected to end the year at ~23%... a fraction of the near ~300% annual rate seen in these parts just over a year ago.

Dear readers will be duly skeptical… and certainly the numbers don’t tell the whole story. As we mentioned in this space last week, GDP figures are easily goosed by government actors, who are only too willing to lard the expenditure side of the nation’s ledger with costly boondoggles and make-work scams, which they then pronounce (and count) as “progress.”

And yet, as anyone with an IQ above room temperature (celsius) knows, not all government programs are created equally, nor do their dubious blessings fall on the innocent and the guilty alike.

Some programs are corrupt to the core, concocted around congressional cauldrons by crooks and conmen, designed from the outset to fail... and always in the politician’s favor. Such schemes look like acts of Congress and smell like acts of Congress, so are generally treated by the upstanding public with the disdain they so desperately deserve.

But here we refer only to what might be called “honest treachery,” which leaves out those myriad programs cynically smuggled past the public’s notice under the guise of do-goodery, like so many pretty little cherubs... with dynamite sticks stuffed inside their jackets.

Think of the hundreds of billions of dollars that go towards “making the world safe for democracy,” for example, a marketing slogan as demonstrably hollow as it is lethal, the modern iteration of Horace’s hoary old dulce et decorum est pro patria mori (“it is good and sweet to die for your country”).

You Dig?

All the more impressive, then, that the “Milei Effect” – collapsing inflation and world-beating growth – has been achieved while cutting government programs, from top to bottom, bad to worse.

Rather than juicing the economy with fiat-powered economic steroids, in other words, Argentina’s pro-market president has instead focused on slaying the Leviathan and returning voluntary trade back to its rightful owners: free markets, free minds and free people.

As Milei remarked earlier this month, in that “other” State of the Union address...

“The chainsaw today is the symbol of a change of era, the beginning of a new golden age for humanity, but this time, instead of going against the world, Argentina is at the forefront.”

“The eyes of the world are now on Argentina,” Milei continued, noting that many other countries were beginning to adopt his administration’s approach and were applying it to their own economies. He mentioned a certain centibillionaire and legacy media whipping boy, one who rescues stranded astronauts in his spare time, as one instance where real cuts to “waste, fraud and abuse” were being made.

And this was only the beginning...

“The chainsaw is not simply a government program, it is a state policy that will last for years,” he promised.

To the cheers of the working many... and the horror of the grifting few... Milei publicly celebrated the fact that 40,000 public non-workers had been laid off during his first year, citing in particular the closure of whole public institutions, including the state media propaganda arm, formerly known as Télam, the national film industry (INCAA), and the so-called Women’s Ministry (founded by ex-president Alberto Fernández, who has since been charged with... wait for it... “gender-based violence” for beating his then-pregnant wife).

Describing these and other corrupted agencies as a “giant political scam,” Milei announced he had “eradicated the lie that public works generate jobs,” stating only that they really just “generate taxes.”

Unlike so-called pro-business leaders elsewhere, who merely shuffle the deck in their own favor, President Milei is decidedly pro-market, letting the chips (to switch casino metaphor) fall where they may.

But as things continue to look good down at this End of the World, what about the Bad and the Ugly elsewhere?

Stay tuned for more Notes From the End of the World...

Cheers,

Joel Bowman

P.S. It’s been about 15 months since we embarked on this little Notes journey and, thanks to the generosity of our Members, we’ve been able to parlay our scribbles into something that threatens to become a full time endeavor.

In fact, we’re now read in all 50 US States and across 137 countries around the world. Consider us chuffed.

Here’s what a few dear Members have to say about their Notes experience…

To thank our Members, we’re hosting our next virtual summit:

Crisis and Opportunity at the End of the World

Which will be held on Wednesday, April 9 at 2pm ET.

Watch this space for more details, including special guest speakers and exclusive, Member Only benefits…

Oh, and if you’re not already a Member, you can correct that calamitous oversight easily enough, right here…