Joel Bowman with today’s Note From the End of the World: Osaka, Japan…
What is a high trust society? How and why do they come about? Can they be “managed,” from the top down, directed by government edict? Or must they emerge organically, through voluntary, spontaneous order?
Is high generalized trust (sometimes called “high social capital” or “social cohesion”) a function of economics… politics… culture?
Is it all of the above? None of them? Something else entirely?
We were musing on these (and related) questions while wandering the streets of Osaka with our family this fine Sunday morning. Home to 19 million people (including the nearby urban centers of Kobe and Kyoto), Osaka’s metropolitan population is roughly the same size as metropolitan New York (~20 million).
Both cities are baseball mad, culinary capitals with tall buildings and gorgeous parks. And yet, the differences tell us a lot more about them than their similarities…
In Osaka, you will search in vain to find a bicycle lock, there being practically no bike theft here. Nor, for that matter, is theft really “a thing” in Japan at all. Quite the reverse, in fact. That is, lost property – including smart phones, laptops and wallets – is routinely returned. It is not at all uncommon, for example, to see all three items laid out neatly on coffeeshop tables… left unattended while their unbothered owners go to the bathroom, wait outside to meet friends, or line up to purchase yet another matcha latte.
The phenomenon appears to be country wide, too. Each year, the Tokyo Police Department (seemingly with little else to do) reports millions of lost items. Which might seem like a waste of time – for both the finder and the loser – until one learns that between 70-80% of smartphones are handed in and returned to their owners… so too for 60-70% of lost cash.
Translation: You could frisbee your wallet off a tall building right now and reasonably expect to pick it up at the local precinct tomorrow morning on your way to work, cards and bills inside.
Found in Translation
Meanwhile (as you can see from the short video clip above), the streets are clean enough to live on… although almost nobody does.
According to official sources, the number of people sleeping rough in Osaka is reported as “763 confirmed.” New York City, meanwhile, registered 130,000 homeless “unhoused” individuals sleeping in homeless shelters in 2024, while total estimates (including people “doubled-up” or “unsheltered”) reach between 200,000–350,000 people, give or take tens of thousands.
For comparison, New York City alone has more than 100x the entire homeless population in Japan… as in, the whole country (of 125 million people). And even that paltry figure is steadily falling…
Indeed, here in Japan, about the only thing less common than vagrancy and petty theft is violent crime...
With a homicide rate of about ~0.2–0.3 per 100,000 people (right around the national average), Osaka is infinitely safer than The Big Apple, which suffers a rate of around 5-6 homicides per 100,000… about 20-25 times higher. And NYC does not even rank in the Top 30 murder capitals of the United States.
St. Louis, Memphis and New Orleans top the list there, with 38, 41 and 50+ homicides per 100,000 respectively. Stated another way, the homicide rate in The Big Easy is two orders of magnitude higher than Osaka.
Low to no crime… clean, safe streets… no bums or beggars. Hmm…
What’s the secret? Not public spending! Check it out, from Gieger Capital (on X):
But who knows? Maybe a big spending, big government communist can turn it around for New York City after all…
Of course, every places has its pros and cons, its ups and downs. Spare a thought for the poor Osakan shop owner, who choose to specialize in bicycle locks!
And now for your Notes From the End of the Week…
Final Notes…
We’re heading to Kyoto in a few days… suggestions from readers who have enjoyed the delights of Japan’s former capital (for over 1,000 years!) are welcome to drop any “must dos” in the comments section, below…
Meanwhile, if you’re enjoying these Notes and are not already among our members, please consider supporting our work by becoming a subscriber today. For less than 20 cents a day, we do all we can to make it worth every penny. Thanks in advance!
Whatever you’re up to this weekend, whether you find yourself in the east of the west, we hope you’re enjoying a high trust experience.
Stay tuned for more Notes From the End of the World…
Cheers,
Joel Bowman
